Economena Analytics, a specialized economic data provider, released its Lebanese Economic Outlook (LEO) for the first half of 2016. Key forecast findings are based on the views of 18 leading Lebanese economists, and show growth in 2016 is expected to slow to 0.72%.
The economic slowdown is mostly viewed as consequence of deterioration in real estate and construction, despite a positive outlook for information technology, manufacturing, transport, retail and public spending.
Weighing heavily on the economy is the deadlock in policy making, especially with the expected failure of Parliament to ratify the budget, and Cabinet to approve two critical oil decrees. A President, however, is likely to be elected in 2016 after almost two years of failed attempts to fill the country’s top post, according to eight of the 18 economists.
Given weakening public finances, particularly amid a widening fiscal deficit and a swelling public debt, eight of the 18 surveyed economists said they expect Lebanon’s sovereign credit ratings to be downgraded.
LEO is an economic forecasting survey of the expectations of leading Lebanese economists on the performance of economic sectors and principal macroeconomic indicators. It is conducted on a semi-annual basis by Economena Analytics and is available free of charge to the public through the Economena User Station at www.economena.com.
Demand for sector-level forecasts has increased substantially in recent years, especially as insecurity in the region brings about elevated levels of uncertainty for investors and policymakers. The LEO survey helps investors and business managers set strategies and manage risk using consensus views of Lebanon’s leading professional economists.