Katia Kheir, Country CEO of CFI Lebanon, on the forces reshaping financial markets, the growing importance of risk discipline, and what traders should expect as 2027 approaches.
Financial markets in 2026 have been shaped by geopolitical developments, disrupted energy flows, shifting interest-rate expectations and widening divergences across regional economies. For traders, this has changed not only what moves markets, but how they need to approach them. Volatility has become a defining feature, while disciplined risk management, speed of execution and the ability to interpret cross-asset signals have become increasingly important.
Q: Markets have been particularly sensitive to energy and geopolitical developments this year. How significant has oil become as a market driver?
A: Oil has always been an important macroeconomic indicator, particularly for MENA, but in 2026 we are seeing a much broader transmission effect. Energy increasingly acts as a bridge between geopolitical developments, inflation expectations, monetary policy and asset prices.
Disruptions to major supply routes have highlighted the vulnerability of the global energy system. The International Energy Agency has projected a significant contraction in global oil supply in 2026, while demand forecasts have also been revised downward. Declining inventories have made markets more sensitive to additional disruption.
For traders, oil cannot be viewed in isolation. A significant move in energy prices can quickly feed into inflation expectations, currencies, equities and interest-rate expectations. Oil is therefore less a standalone commodity trade and more a systemic risk indicator. The question is not simply where oil is going, but what its movement is telling us about inflation, growth, liquidity and policy.
Q: Does this environment make volatility a risk, or does it create opportunities for traders?
A: Volatility is both. It increases risk, but it also creates opportunities for traders with the tools, discipline and speed to respond to changing conditions. The distinction is between volatility that is understood and volatility that catches you unprepared. In 2026, markets have reacted rapidly to macroeconomic data, central bank expectations and geopolitical developments, making traditional assumptions about correlations and market behavior less reliable.
For active traders, this creates opportunities around sharp market repricing. But the opportunity is not simply predicting the next move. It is having a defined framework for entering and exiting positions and adjusting when conditions change.
Technology also matters. Fast execution, competitive spreads, access to multiple asset classes and reliable market information can make a meaningful difference when markets move quickly. But technology is only an enabler. Without a disciplined strategy, speed can simply make mistakes happen faster.
Q: You mentioned discipline. Are you seeing a shift away from speculation toward a more structured approach to trading?
A: Yes. The market environment has become much less forgiving of undisciplined trading. Higher financing costs, changing valuations and greater uncertainty have forced traders to pay closer attention to downside risk. Risk management increasingly needs to be part of the trading decision itself.
That means establishing risk parameters before entering a trade, using appropriate stop-loss levels, and managing leverage and margin carefully.
There is also a behavioral element. Successful trading is not about being right on every trade. It is about managing the consequences when you are wrong and preserving the ability to participate in the next opportunity.
Financial education has an important role here. At CFI, we place significant emphasis on developing that understanding through CFI Academy, because informed traders are better equipped to navigate markets independently and responsibly.
Q: How is this changing the way traders should look at MENA markets?
A: One of the biggest mistakes is continuing to treat MENA as a single market. The events of 2026 have highlighted how different the underlying economic structures and vulnerabilities of individual markets can be.
The region is experiencing sharper divergence in performance. Recent BMI projections point to a significant contraction across MENA in 2026, but the impact is highly uneven. Economies exposed to disrupted energy routes are facing greater pressure, while markets with alternative export routes or stronger domestic diversification are showing greater resilience.
Oman illustrates how infrastructure and geography can influence economic resilience, while North African economies such as Egypt demonstrate how domestic demand and diversification can provide buffers against external shocks.
For traders, regional allocation therefore needs to become more selective. Rather than relying on broad regional narratives, they need to examine the specific drivers, vulnerabilities and catalysts within individual markets.
The MENA opportunity is not disappearing. It is becoming more differentiated, creating a greater need for localized knowledge and a nuanced approach to risk and opportunity.
Q: Another noticeable development has been the growing importance of events in driving markets. Is event-driven trading becoming a more permanent feature?
A: Absolutely. Markets have always reacted to major events, but the speed at which information is transmitted and priced has changed the nature of event-driven trading. Geopolitical developments, elections, policy decisions, central bank announcements and unexpected economic data can trigger immediate repricing across multiple asset classes. Traders increasingly have to think in terms of scenarios and probabilities rather than simply historical trends.
Financial infrastructure is evolving as well, with faster settlement, increasingly digital platforms and more continuous market access reflecting a broader shift in how financial markets operate.
This does not mean every market event should be traded. It reinforces the importance of understanding the event, assessing its potential impact and defining the risk before taking a position. The growing importance of event-driven trading reflects a broader trend: markets are becoming faster, more interconnected and more information-sensitive.
Q: Looking toward 2027, which of the changes we are seeing today are structural, and which could prove temporary?
A: Some of the volatility we are experiencing is linked to the current geopolitical and macroeconomic environment and will eventually normalize. But the way markets are being traded is undergoing a deeper transformation.
The integration of technology, demand for faster execution, growing importance of digital financial infrastructure and greater focus on risk controls are not temporary responses to a difficult year. They are part of a broader evolution in financial markets.
We are also seeing a shift in the regional financial architecture, particularly in the Gulf, where investment in financial infrastructure, digital finance and capital markets is creating increasingly sophisticated ecosystems.
For traders, the next phase will require more than identifying attractive assets. It will require understanding how liquidity moves, how macroeconomic developments transmit across markets and how technology is changing access to them.
I would describe 2026 as a year that reinforced the value of agility. The lesson for 2027 is that agility needs to be supported by discipline. The traders and investors best positioned to navigate the environment will be those who can distinguish noise from structural change, manage risk before opportunity and adapt without losing sight of their strategy.
Q: What does this ultimately mean for investors and traders in the year ahead?
A: The market environment is becoming less forgiving of passive assumptions and more rewarding of preparation. There will always be new themes, technologies and sources of volatility. What remains constant is the need to understand the forces behind price movements and have a clear framework for managing them.
For investors and traders entering 2027, I would focus on three things: understand the macro environment, remain disciplined about risk and stay adaptable. The objective is not to predict every market move. It is to build the knowledge, tools and discipline required to respond when the market moves.
That is ultimately what modern trading demands: not certainty, but agility backed by informed decision-making.
About Katia Kheir:
With more than two decades of experience at CFI Lebanon, Katia Kheir brings an end-to-end understanding of financial markets, operations, risk and institutional leadership to her role as CEO. Having joined CFI in 2004 and served in senior roles across operations, financial control and risk management before becoming CEO, her perspective is grounded in both the mechanics of financial institutions and the realities of navigating changing market conditions.