o The consensus growth forecast for 2015 fell to 1.5%, from 2% at the start of the year.
o None of the surveyed economists expect real estate transactions or prices to rise in the next 12 months.
o Growth will be primarily driven by public spending, banking, ICT, and restaurants.
o There is a 50/50 chance of a President being elected in 2015.
o Fourteen of 17 economists say a political agreement in Syria is unlikely this year, and 10 in 17 do not expect a budget to be approved.
Beirut, Economena Analytics – 17 June 2015: Economena Analytics, a specialized economic information provider, released its Lebanese Economic Outlook (LEO) for the second quarter of 2015. Key forecast findings show heightened levels of pessimism in recent months, with growth forecasts for 2015 falling to 1.5% in the Q2 survey from 2% at the start of the year. The findings are based on the views of 17 leading Lebanese economists.
None of the surveyed economists expect real estate transactions or prices to rise in the next 12 months, while 10 of the 17 are projecting declines in both. Instead, growth will be primarily driven by public spending, banking, ICT, and restaurants, consensus forecasts showed.
Economists were generally more pessimistic than they were at the start of the year, especially after disappointing data in the first four months of the year. The political outlook has also become more uncertain, with the conflict in Syria showing no signs of abating and the domestic deadlock causing a virtual paralysis in fiscal policy.
LEO is an economic forecasting survey of the expectations of leading Lebanese economists on the performance of economic sectors and principal macroeconomic indicators. It is released on a quarterly basis by Economena and is available free of charge to the public through the Economena User Station on www.economena.com.
Demand for sector-level forecasts has increased substantially in recent years, especially as insecurity in the region brings about elevated levels of uncertainty for investors and policymakers. The LEO survey helps investors and business managers set strategies and manage risk using consensus views of Lebanon’s leading professional economists.
About Economena Analytics
Economena Analytics is a specialized economic data provider covering the Lebanese and Middle East markets. The company facilitates research and investment analysis in the region by providing research tools and support services to banks, economists, policymakers, consultants, analysts, and journalists based in the region and around the world.